The USA, through its president George W Bush, is boasting that they won the war with Afghanistan. It is true that the 2001 invasion of this country succeeded, and that the Taliban regime was removed in a few weeks. But let us consider a few facts:
- The population of Afghanistan was estimated to be around 25.8 millions in July 2,000. At the same time the population of the USA was about 282 millions, more than 10 times as much.
- The Gross National Product of Afghanistan (GNP) was about $4.63bn in 2003 and that of the USA $10,402bn, that is more 2,200 times more. The GNP per "Capita" (per person) is respectively $36,800 in the USA and $180 in Afghanistan, about 200 times less.
- So with a population ten times higher than Afghanistan, and a GNP per head 200 times higher, the USA won the war! The American people are still boasting about it, but what about the more reasonable other people of the world? For them it was a completely unbalance conflict whose result was clear in advance: a fast and complete defeat of the Afghans in front of a far superior power.

In addition, as described before (see 5.2.1), during the invasion the US limited itself to bomb the already destroyed country with planes flying at 30,000 feet, out of range of the inexistent Afghan air defence. As a result many civilians were killed but who cares, they were no Americans! During the invasion, the dirty and bloody job such as the battles on the ground, were sub-contracted to the Northern Alliance that suffered the highest casualties while the American losses were minimal, obviously. But the American authorities and the American people in general, are only interested in limiting the American casualties since, after all, the foreign victims do not count, they are seen as collateral damages and statistics. The number of civilians and soldiers, if they were counted, and this is rarely the case, do not interest the majority of the American people.

All the same it is believed that at least 10,000 Afghan soldiers and civilians died from the beginning of the war to April 2005. The high altitude bombing killed most of them. This is to be compared with the 3,000 dead during the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York City and Washington DC.

Is this fair? Everybody must decide for his or herself.

In April 2005, three and a half year after the invasion of Afghanistan, the country is still occupied by the Americans. In addition, a peacekeeping force is trying to pacify the whole country that, outside the capital Kabul, is still controlled by the remnant of the Taliban and by the warlords. The poppy production that is used to produce heroin had been practically halted by the Taliban. Now, since the invasion, the production was resumed again, and it reached record levels last year. In other words, the US army and the new administration in Kabul still do not control the country more than three years after the invasion.

The Americans said that they were invading Afghanistan to destroy al-Qaida, punish the Taliban for allowing Osama bin Laden to build his base and his training camps in the country, and to bring democracy and freedom to the Afghan people. They succeeded to disperse the al-Qaida members and to replace the Taliban regime by one very close to their interests. If they destroyed the al-Qaida organisation is not so certain. The invasion of Afghanistan incited many Muslims from different Arab countries to join al-Qaida to fight a "revenge" war (Jihad) against the so-called Infidels. Some people even go as far as saying that the danger of world terrorism has increased since the invasion of Afghanistan and, later on of Iraq.

It is true that Hamid Karzai, the American puppet was elected president in what has been described as a fair popular election in October 2004. The main question is: could such an election, that took place during the American occupation of the country, be considered fair? For someone like me who lived during the occupation of my country by the Germans during World War II, the answer is No, definitely No.

This document contains information until mid-May 2005. But this is not the end of the story yet, far from it. What will the future bring to Afghanistan is not obvious, but one can make some forecasts based on two assumptions:

The optimistic:
- The government succeeds in putting together a national army of at least 70,000 soldiers and they bring security to the country, subdue the warlords, assimilate the remaining Taliban, eliminate one way or the other the al Qaida fighters and eliminate the poppy cultivation.
- A pipeline to transport oil and gas from the Islamic republics of Central Asia to Pakistan, the Arabian Sea and, possibly, India via Afghanistan is constructed and operative.
- Western nations give Afghanistan the money it needs to reconstruct the country's infrastructure. This brings some wealth to the country and the Afghans live better that they ever did before.
- In these conditions the American occupation of the country could come to an end and, after a certain time, even the peacekeepers would leave the country.
- Afghanistan would then be an independent country again but it is not certain that Hamid Karzai's regime would last, as he will never shake off the general view that he has been, and perhaps would still be, an American puppet.

The pessimistic:
- Hamid Karzai and his American masters are not able to bring security to the country. Karzai controls only Kabul and its surrounding, and nothing much else.
- The American soldiers continue to occupy the country, in effect running and controlling it as they do now.
- The warlords and the drug barons become more and more powerful; they want to expel the Americans and run the country for their own benefit. A conflict with the American occupiers follows.
- The money promised for the reconstruction does not come, the ordinary people become poorer and poorer, and a civil war becomes inevitable.
- Afghanistan is back where it was in 1995. The northern provinces become quasi independent and a return of some sort of orthodox Muslim rulers in the south is probable.
- This would be the end of Karzai's regime and, possibly, of Karzai himself.

Let us hope that the optimistic assumption prevails.

PS
I would like to make it clear that I am not anti-American, quite the opposite. I graduated from one of the best American Engineering School, I visited most continental states, and I still enjoy going there. What I do not like is the present extreme right wing president and his administration. I believe that the US Constitution is one of the best in the world. Unfortunately, in these days, those who are supposed to guarantee the freedom and the rights of the citizens -the Bills of Rights- are ignoring the basic principles contained in the Constitution and its Amendments.

What most people outside the USA, and I am one of them, especially do not like:
- The right that the present president attributed to himself to engage in pre-emptive invasion of any other country to defend the so-called "American interests" as defined, case by case, by the same president.
- The internment of American citizens and foreigners -described as enemy-combatants, terrorists, etc.- for unlimited duration, without charge and without access to a lawyer goes against any basic international laws and especially against the Geneva Conventions and the UN Charter.
- The abuses and torture mainly of foreign prisoners that took place in all military prison in the USA, in Guantanamo bay Cuba, and in Afghanistan.
- Undue fear of terrorism generated by the administration is used as an excuse to reduce freedom in all fields of life. Most American people these days are afraid to criticise their government as this is now seen as anti-American although the First Amendment protect explicitly the Freedom of Speech.
- The Amendments 4, 5 and 6 define the rights of the people in front of the law. These rights have been cancelled for many residents, especially to the Muslin and those of Arab origin. They have also been reduced to all the other citizens.
- The complete disregard for the international laws even those ratified by the USA.
- The arrogance that is reflected in the attitude of most ordinary American citizens towards anything foreign.
- The complete disregard for anything that could interfere with the way of life or the interest of the American people. As an example among others, the rejection of the obligations foreseen in the Kyoto Treaty concerning the Global warming problem is typical. Anything that could impose some immediate reduction in the way of life of the Americans is wrong. The obvious future consequences of such decisions do not interest the present administration. Another one will have to deal with the problems in the future.

All this is taken very badly by most countries and the image of the USA, and its people, has now reached its lowest level ever. The Americans and the American way of life are now seen as selfishness and arrogance.

I hope the next president will realise that the world also exists outside the USA. If, and when this happens, like millions and millions of people all over the world I will again look at the USA and its people with sympathy and admiration for what they represent. It is not the case now.

GCN, May 2005