On February 15, 2003, the Iraqi opposition leaders in exile said that they disagree with the US plans on how to run Iraq after the war. The US wants to impose US military rule on Iraq for a long period of time -one, two years, if no more. According to the Iraqi opposition this would be a disaster for the country, and for the relations between the Iraqi people and the USA. The opposition is especially unhappy about the US plan to continue to use the infrastructure of Saddam's ruling Ba'ath party under American leadership. This same opposition is now saying that it is Germany, at the request of the US that supplied Saddam Hussein with chemical weapons in the 1980s. The Pentagon and Vice President Dick Cheney would like to introduce western-style (that is American-style) democracy in Iraq but Colin Powell and the CIA, that believe that it would de-stabilise the region, oppose this. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are opposing giving power to Iraqi's Kurds or Shiites. What a nice mess the US is creating!!!
Halliburton, the Vice President Cheney's firm where he was Chief Executive, has already been given a contract to put out possible oil field fires in Iraq. It is also bidding to participate in the reconstruction. Vice-president Cheney still receives money from his old firm; it is described as deferred payments and worth about $1m a year. Although this is legal in the US, it does not look good for his impartiality. On March 17, 2003, before the war began that is, it became known that US firms would get $1.5bn worth of contracts to rebuild the Iraqi infrastructure.
On March 26, 2003, before going to Washington to talk with president Bush, Blair tried to heal the diplomatic rift between Europe and the USA over Iraq. This is not going to happen soon, and certainly not before the end of the war. Moreover the fact that Bush wants to administer post-war Iraq alone that is without the United Nations does not help. It looks more and more like Iraq will become de facto an American colony on the model, but more so, of Afghanistan.
On Thursday March 27, 2003 Bush and Blair reviewed the plans for the reconstruction and on this the two leaders disagreed. Blair would like to involve fully the United Nations but the right wing politicians in Washington want to keep it in American hands. If the USA wants to do it alone, Europe will contribute very little but, if the United Nations coordinates the interventions, then Europe would contribute financially. In both cases it is already clear that most of the money will come from Iraqi oil. America is generous in appearance but, in fact, they are not. They could also charge the cost of their war -now estimated at $75bn for the first six months- on the same Iraqi oil. Any talk about letting the Iraqi oil profits to the Iraqis is just that, talk.
On March 31, 2003, the American plans on how to run post-war Iraq were revealed and it caused some trouble between Bush and his Doggy Blair. Under that plan the government will consist of 23 ministries, each headed by an American, of course. Each ministry will have four Iraqi advisers appointed by the Americans. At least things are getting clearer. The USA wants one more colony. It is even worse that in Afghanistan where the system they imposed was far from democratic. Each time a region is pacified it will be transferred to the provisional government headed by Jay Garner, the former general appointed to head a military occupation of Iraq. The members of this government, chosen by Paul Wolfowitz, are already in Kuwait. General Garner was not even consulted although he objected to the inclusion of controversial Iraqis, the worse of which is Ahmed Chalabi, the head of the opposition Iraqi national Congress. Mr Chalabi wanted to become prime minister but he will have to settle for an advisory job in the Finances ministry, He is still arguing that Iraq should be governed by the Iraqis and not by the Americans. Mr Chalabi is a failed banker whose main qualification is due to the fact that he is ready to lick the boots of the Americans whatever they want and say. Somebody like Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, but worse.
The USA is preparing to move the first components of an interim Iraqi government in the country. The British are still insisting that the UN should be "put in charge" of any interim administration but their voice carries no weight. Bush is coming to Belfast this Monday to discuss also this problem but he has taken the decision, the interim government will be an American's puppet and nothing else. It is true that the UN has not the manpower to administer Iraq and should rely on the USA and Britain for it. But, at least, this would give an appearance of legality to something that has none, as the war was not authorised by the UN. There will be two phases to the interim administration. In the first one, American and British personnel and civil servants will administer Iraq. It will take over as soon as the war is said to be over. The British will administer southern Iraq around Basra. British personnel are already in Kuwait preparing to move to Iraq. The second phase would be the administration led by the retired general, Jay Garner. At that point the UN should have a certain role according to the British, but which one is no clear yet.
On April 4, 2003, it became known that the USA is hunting for American and British oil executives and experts to "advise" the Iraqis on how to run the oil fields and the refineries in post war Iraq. The picture becomes clearer everyday. First, an American government composed of American ministers will run the country and now we are told that the oil industry will be in the hands of the invaders. If this is not colonialism, what is it? And they go on saying that they invaded Iraq to bring democracy and liberate the Iraqis!!
The Americans have secretly flown the opposition leader, Ahmad Chalabi, a very controversial figure but still the head of the main opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress (INC), into Iraq on April 6, 2003. With his entourage, he was on his way to Nassiriya, after leaving the mountain resort of Dukan in Kurdish territory in northern Iraq where the INC had its headquarters. It is becoming clear that the Pentagon is grooming him to be the next Iraqi prime minister even if they have to push him through the throat of the Iraqi people. It is also believed that the White House will officially present retired general Jay Garner as Iraq' civilian administrator who will take over temporary control of the country in the post war period. He will prepare the second phase when an Iraqi interim authority will take over the government after a -probably- 90 days of military rule. Prominent figures of the exiled opposition will be part of this authority although the Americans are fed up with their internal quarrels. If only for this reason other Iraqis from inside the country will be also be drafted into it. In any case it will be a puppet government like in Afghanistan with the US giving the orders.
On April 7, 2003, the British appointed Major General Tim Cross as deputy to Jay Garner the appointed future head of the interim authority that will control Iraq after the war. And what will the UN do in all this pre-arranged government of post-war Iraq?
On April 8, 2003, it is obvious that aid comes too little and too late. The main problems in Basra are the lack of water and the lack of food and medicine. The local people blame the British for it, accusing them to think only about their soldiers and not at all about the problems they created to the people by their invasion.
It is clear, on April 8 2003 that the Americans and the British want, first of all, to "debaathising" Iraq. However the future Iraqi administration will have to retain many of the old civil servants as their competence is required in the post war period. The purges and trials will be limited to the top leadership of the Ba'ath party and those with blood on their hands from torture, killing and use of chemical weapons. Moreover the British troops in Basra were promised -and they accepted it- the help of a local tribal leader in their attempt to re-establish law and order. At the present time looting continue on a large scale and any help is welcome.
On April 12, 2003, it looks like the "hawks" in Washington have won the battle of influence, and that they will impose the Iraqi exiles as the new leaders with, or without, the agreement of the majority of the Iraqis. This is American democracy at its best -see also Afghanistan. In these conditions the probable leader of the puppet government will be Ahmad Chalabi, the leader of the Iraqi National Congress. It has already its own army of about 5,000 men trained by the Americans and participating marginally in the war against Saddam's regime. Since his arrival in Nassiriya he is holding court with local dignitaries. However Chalabi is accused of financial misdealing including a $200m banking scandal in Jordan where he was tried in his absence in 1992 and condemned to 22 years in prison. Is he another Berlusconi and, for the same reasons, a natural friend of president Bush? Chalabi denies the accusations and says that they were politically motivated. On April 16 it became known that he was involved in other financial scandals with his brothers, Jawad and Hazem, in Switzerland this time where they were convicted by the local authorities of false accounting in the collapse of an investment company, Socofi. Another bank in Geneva, Mebco, had its banking license withdraw before it too collapsed.
On April 14, 2003, Blair said that Iraq could have "free elections" before the end of 2004. Armed groups of Shia citizens, in cooperation with the US forces they said, tried to bring law and order in Baghdad under instruction from clerics in the holy city of Najaf. This shows that there is already an organised and armed alternative power structure to the Saddam regime and this does not please Washington at all. American and British officials were having a meeting with 75 specially chosen Iraqis near the southern city of Nassiriya. The aim is to decide the shape of the Iraqi interim authority. The Americans say that it is "the start of a national dialogue among Iraqis about the future of their country" but as the Americans chose the Iraqi guests, mainly exiles, they do not represent the people. Iraq's main Shia Muslim opposition group is boycotting the meeting and even the American's choice for heading this government, Mr Chalabi, will not attend. The UN was not invited! On April 15 it was obvious that the participants did not represent Iraq but only the American interests and wishes. The meeting on the Talil airport outside Nassiriya went on despite the boycott by the main Shia group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution that is backed by Iran. The meeting ended with only a broad outline in 13 points for a government agreed. There were big Shia manifestations in Nassiriya, Basra and Kut -and more trouble in Mosul- against this meeting who asked for a meeting without foreigners and expressed disapproval of Ahmad Chalabi, an exile who is pushed by the Pentagon to be the next Iraqi leader.
The contracts for the reconstruction of Iraq are given to American firms
only, we were told on April 14, 2003. The main contractors are:
- Bechtel from San Francisco. Former Secretary of State, George Shultz,
sits on the board.
- Fluor, Aliso Viego, California. Its vice-president, Kenneth Oscar, is
a former navy Secretary.
- Halliburton, Dallas, Texas. Vice President Dick Cheney was its former
chief executive.
- Louis Berger Group, East Orange, New Jersey.
- Parsons, Pasadena, California. Formerly employed the Labour Secretary,
Elaine Chao.
- Washington, Boise, Idaho. A major military contractor.
This is probably what is justifying the war, in addition to the oil fields.
Iraq will have a new currency but on April 15, 2003, the money most used in Baghdad was the US dollar and many people are wondering if it should not be kept on a permanent basis. The looting of the bank's first result was that most savers were driven into poverty.
In April 2003 the Arab world has difficulties to adapt to the fall of the Saddam Hussein's regime. They will be very careful before recognising any new Iraqi government because it would be seen as legitimising the invasion and, also, because they fear the USA could set-up a colonial-style regime in Baghdad. Even the Arab countries that supported the invasion, like Kuwait, are asking for a truly independent Iraqi government, and not one manipulated by Washington like in Afghanistan. Iraq will, probably, be suspended temporarily from the Arab League, as the Arab countries do not want to see Iraq represented by General Franks or Mr Jay Garner.
Iraq's huge political differences emerged in the open in Baghdad on April 18, 2003, as ten of thousands of religious protesters, possibly Sunni in their majority, called on the USA to leave the country. They said that they were happy Saddam Hussein's regime was thrown out, but they added that they did not want it replaced by a foreign government. Shia clerics in Baghdad and their spiritual capital, Najaf, are calling for an Islamic government; they chanted "No to America, No to Saddam! Our revolution is Islamic". The marchers called for unity of the Shia, Sunni and Kurds saying that what is important is Iraq. Some clerics are now saying that the USA invaded Iraq to defend Israel.
On April 18, 2003, Iraq's neighbour states increased the tension between the USA and the Arab world by calling for the withdrawal of US and British troops from Iraq. They also declared their support for Syria when the foreign ministers from Turkey, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait met to discuss Iraq's future. Representatives of Egypt and Bahrain were also invited to the meeting in Riyadh. Syria's foreign minister confirmed on April 21, 2003, that they have closed their borders with Iraq to avoid criticism from the USA about the possibility that ex-Iraqi leaders were finding refuge there.
The ex-US general Jay Garner arrived in Baghdad on April 21, 2003 with his British deputy, Major General Tim Cross, and many assistants. He will run the American-led Office of Reconstruction and humanitarian Assistance (ORHA). His priority is to restore basic services such as water and electricity and to leave as soon as possible. He did not leave a great impression on the Iraqi doctors as the condition in their hospitals is still very bad and the Americans, up to now, do not seem to care about it and do nothing. On the other hand Garner started a two-days visit in Northern Iraq on April 22, 2003, and he was well received by the Kurd population.
On April 21, 2003, hundred of thousand of Iraqi Shia worshippers converged on Kerbala at one of the sect's holiest shrine in a display of political and religious strength. They did so on the anniversary of the death in a battle in 680AD of Imam Hussein, grandson of the prophet Mohammed and the traditional 40-days mourning. Following the Shia tradition some tore their clothes and cut themselves, drawing blood while still others flogged themselves with chains. They want their country ruled by religious leaders under Islamic laws. They strongly reject a possible government run by the Americans or their stooges and they are ready to die for their faith and political wishes even if they are grateful to the USA and Britain to have liberated them from Saddam Hussein who persecuted them. At the same time political activities are also taking place in Baghdad but on a smaller scale for the moment. Political parties forbidden to operate legally for decades are acting in the open now. This includes the Iraqi communist party, the Liberal Democratic Movement, the national Arab Democratic Movement, the Iraqi national congress of Ahmad Chalabi (funded by the USA), etc. The Shia religious leadership, the "al-Hawza al-Ilmiya" (the supreme seat of Shia learning) has already assumed power as a kind of shadow government of the 60% of Iraq's 24 million populations who are Shia. It ordered to stop the looting, to return the stolen goods and forbid anyone to organise a rally or a march without their authorisation.
The Shia pilgrimage to Kerbala that was concluded on April 23, 2003, clearly showed their deep-rooted religious fervour, the radicalism and cohesion of the 60% Shia majority, and the resistance to the US-led occupation of Iraq. And now the Americans are going to broadcast television programme US-style via satellite over the Arab world. They intend to send propaganda programme over the region on a 24 hours basis. The USA expressed unease at the anti-American protests in Iraq on April 24. Even Jay Garner admitted that the level of anti-American demonstrations was much higher that expected. The US accused Iran again of fomenting trouble among the country's majority Shia Muslims. Some observers are asking openly whether the presences of American forces of occupation in the country would led to the creation of an Islamic state. After threatening Syria now the American forces are threatening Iran. The US Defence secretary, Donald Duck (Rumsfeld) dismissed the suggestion that Iraq could become a theocracy: "If you are asking how would we feel about an Iranian-type government with a few clerics running everything in the country, the answer is: That is not going to happen." In other words the Iraqis will be free to choose the government of their choice as long as it is what the Americans want.
On April 24, 2003, the BBC director general, Greg Dyke attacked the US television networks for their lack of impartiality in reporting the war in Iraq. He compared it with the correctness of the BBC reporting. He added that the British government proposal to liberalise media ownership because many stations would soon become "Americanised" with all the negative aspects that would follow. He criticised above all Rupert Murdoch's US Fox channel that is more propaganda that news.
The strangest things occur in Iraq. On April 27, 2003, we were told that after 13 years fighting Saddam Hussein, the so-called Lord of the Marshes wants his "country" back. Abu Hattem and his guerrillas fought their own war against Saddam in the marches that cover the south of Iraq at the border with Iran. He was unable to enter into open warfare with the Iraqi army but he attacked them before retiring as suddenly as he came creating a lot of trouble. To try to find him, Saddam Hussein ordered the marshes to be dried, obliging the inhabitants to leave as the land was dead, but this did not help much. He is a Shia Muslim and, although he is now collaborating with the British, he wants them, and the Americans, to leave his country very soon. He is opposed to have permanent American military basis in Iraq. He denies any links with the Lebanese Hizbollah -backed by Syria and Iran- although his group is known by this name. He insists that he is independent.
Mohammed Mohammed Mohsen al-Zubaidi, a returned exile associated with the opposition Iraqi National Congress, proclaimed himself mayor of Baghdad. On April 27, 2003, the American troops arrested him on the charge of "exercising authority which was not his". This is seen as a warning to the political parties that denounce the US occupation and threaten to set up alternative government. Another cleric, Abbas Abu Ragef, who seized the town hall of Kut was also expulsed. On the same day Jay Garner, the American pro-consul in Iraq, organised a second meeting of the possible future rulers of Iraq, two weeks after one that took place in Nassiriya. The Iran-based Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, a Shia important group that did not attend the Nassiriya meeting, will be represented this time. The British Foreign Office minister, Mike O'Brien, will also be there.
Only to make the USA more unpopular in the world, on April 28 2003, Washington put Dan Amstutz, a former senior executive of Cargill, the biggest grain exporter in the world, in charge of agricultural reconstruction in Iraq. Some charities, like Oxfam, already denounce this appointment as an example of the potentially damaging commercialisation of the reconstruction of Iraq. It looks like Mr Amstutz's brief is to create a new market for the American farmers and to feed the Iraqis, now and in the future, with American agricultural products. The charities would prefer to let the UN do the job.
On April 28, 2003, about 300 Iraqis accepted the US invitation to take
part in a conference in Baghdad to start the process of forming an Iraqi
government. At the end of a chaotic 10 hours meeting, the delegates agreed
to meet again in a month time to select a transitional government. Unfortunately,
most ordinary Iraqis see the participants as US puppets as the Americans
chose them and they describe them as "not sufficiently representative
to form an interim government". About half the delegates are exiles
brought back on the coat tails of the Americans and as such hardly representative.
The main Shia opposition party, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq (their headquarters is in Iran) sent low-level officials who said
that they came to discuss civil administration questions such as security,
water and electricity but not the formation of a government. The same day,
many people in Saddam Hussein hometown, Tikrit, decorated the streets with
homemade shrine and portraits of Saddam Hussein. April 28 is his 66th birthday.
The US had banned all birthday celebrations but the people feasted it publicly
anyway showing that the old dictators has still many followers.